The Economist: Inflation #1

[Imboring56]

Here is a series of calculations from me on the inflation of the economy and the rate it is going at. Before I post them below, I will ask you to please keep opinions to yourself on this thread and argue with facts and statistics. Also, this thread is only to be referenced to as something similar to a research paper, meaning that I will try not to put in any of my own opinion into this matter. Finally, if there are any money generation techniques or money sinks that I don't know or forgot about, please notify me on this thread and I'll add them in right away.

Calculations​

Input:

Money from new players: 7,376 new players * 30 silver = 221,280 silver / 4(only 1 quarter of them actually use the silver) = 55,320 silver

Money from premium bonus: 75 silver x 474 premiums = 35,550 silver

Money from raw voting silver: (1 silver x 4088 votes x 0.1 chance) + (3 silver x 4088 votes x 0.05 chance) + (5 silver x 4088 votes x 0.03 chance) + (10 silver x 4088 votes x 0.01 chance) + (15 silver x 4088 votes x 0.007 chance) + (25 silver x 4088 votes x 0.0029 chance) + (100 silver x 4088 votes x 0.0001 chance) = 408.8 silver + 613.2 silver + 613.2 silver + 408.8 silver + 51.24 silver + 296.38 silver + 40.88 silver = 2,136.12 silver

Money from mob money: (2.5 silver x 474 premiums) + (1.25 silver + 948 non-premiums) = 7,110 silver + 1,185 silver = 8,295 silver

Output:

Money from rich shops: 32 rich shops x 300 silver = 9,600 silver

Money from regular shops: 72 regular shops x 70 silver = 5,040 silver

Money from special district shops: 88 special district shops x 50 silver = 4,400 silver

Money from houses: 41 houses x 30 silver = 1,230 silver

Money from factions: 20 factions x 200 silver = 4,000 silver


Total Input: 55,320 silver + 35,550 silver + 2,136.12 silver + 8,295 silver = 101,301.12 silver

Total Output: 9,600 silver + 5,040 silver + 4,400 silver + 1,230 silver + 4,000 silver = 33,270 silver


Total Silver Generated: 68,031.12 silver

Note: These statistics are all based on averages from the recent monthly stats page on the website. I also encourage you to check the calculations yourself for minor errors I might have done.

Analysis​

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The current amount of inflation every month is about 68k silver. The current amount of inflation every year, at this rate, would be about 816k silver.

The money generators which could be invalid or not accounted for:

• Non-premium mob money
• New players
• Raw voting items, spawned items, and natural resources
• Duped, x-rayed, or glitched items

The money sinks which could be invalid or not accounted for:

• Bugs in chest shops, regions, etc.
• Factions disbanded
• Factions created
• Banned or inactive players

With that being said, you may quote me on this topic for research purposes, as well as help me out by thinking and finding out more ways to make these rates more understandable and accurate. I will be posting more of these monthly, checking on inflation values and seeing whether the rate is going up or down.

Finally, feel free to ask me about how the calculations were set up as well as argue with me on this front, but please use statistics, not just opinions.

~ Imboring56, The Economist

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[Oxoman]

Thank you, this is fantastic!
The statistics do worry me a little, and new money sinks may be required to prevent the rapid inflation. I was about to ask your opinion when I fully read the post. However, do you have any predictions as to what MassiveCraft's economy will look like in a few months' time?

 

[Imboring56]

Oxoman,
For me, I personally like to think of this period in MassiveCraft as the 1920s in the United States. They were made out to be great when a lot of cultural changes were made, and when there was an underlying economic instability as people poured too much money into the stock market even though companies were failing, people bought too much on credit, and so on and so forth.

Now, while I do not believe we will hit a depression or even a recession, due to the fact that the silver on the server is more controlled than it is in real life, I still think that we will hit some sort of a silver problem - in which the money will practically become worthless as the price of multiple items decrease.

However, my opinion is fairly simple: I would remove the premium bonus and slash the new player's money in half. I can bring up another set of calculations to determine that the non-premiums can buy a basic set of supplies for less than 15 silver, but that's another thread for another time.

 

[Oxoman]

I really appreciate the insight on that. As a Brit I only know what I need to about the economic history of America. However, I've always questioned how the MassiveCraft economy would fare over time, particularly with the introduction of a premium bonus, which benefited me in the short term sure, but I saw the likely long term problems. However, as an unintelligent teen I had not the ability to prepare a report on the economy as it is. This is greatly appreciated by myself and, I hope, the whole Massivecraft community.

 

[enderdragon]

Yes I am very glad that you have posted theses statistics let us all hope that they change the silver before it ruins the economy. I have only needed 15 silver for me to live ,even today when I have been on the Server for 2 years I have never needed much more than that but know I will have to have a lot more silver if I want to keep living on

 

[DrFong]

Heyo! Nice to see some calculations. I have a quick question: Where does this data come from: "only 1 quarter of them actually use the silver"

Thanks,
Fong

 

[Imboring56]

DrFong,
If you look at the stats page and look at the graph underneath new players, you'll see that line being a "Unique Returning Player" text. After averaging it out, it looked like a ratio of 1 to 4 from the next month was established. Also, part of that was guesswork and that was why I put that it could possibly be invalid because I don't have access to the server cloud and the resources that come with it. If anybody could actually find out the amount, I would love that.

 

[Imboring56]

Also, a small note that could potentially make all of the money generators grow: Remember that this is only the middle of November. We haven't even touched December, and already the inflation rate is this high. I will be reporting back in a week or two with a second set of statistics fine-tuned to show how the status of the inflation rate is after November.

 

[Shayin]

Well.
Nice to see Massive's economy is mirroring real life economy.

 

[Azas]

I'm not sure where you're getting these numbers:

Money from new players: 7,376 new players * 30 silver = 221,280 silver / 4(only 1 quarter of them actually use the silver) = 55,320 silver

Money from premium bonus: 75 silver x 474 premiums = 35,550 silver

Money from raw voting silver: (1 silver x 4088 votes x 0.1 chance) + (3 silver x 4088 votes x 0.05 chance) + (5 silver x 4088 votes x 0.03 chance) + (10 silver x 4088 votes x 0.01 chance) + (15 silver x 4088 votes x 0.007 chance) + (25 silver x 4088 votes x 0.0029 chance) + (100 silver x 4088 votes x 0.0001 chance) = 408.8 silver + 613.2 silver + 613.2 silver + 408.8 silver + 51.24 silver + 296.38 silver + 40.88 silver = 2,136.12 silver

Money from mob money: (2.5 silver x 474 premiums) + (1.25 silver + 948 non-premiums) = 7,110 silver + 1,185 silver = 8,295 silver

Output:

Money from rich shops: 32 rich shops x 300 silver = 9,600 silver

Money from regular shops: 72 regular shops x 70 silver = 5,040 silver

Money from special district shops: 88 special district shops x 50 silver = 4,400 silver

Money from houses: 41 houses x 30 silver = 1,230 silver

Money from factions: 20 factions x 200 silver = 4,000 silver​

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1. The numbers you have for new players and premiums are different from what the stats page lists.
2. 4088 votes is likely only from one site's monthly vote count, there are three sites
3. I'm not sure how you generated the mob money estimate, I would wager that this number is highly inaccurate due to the heavy skew of the results due to the long-term darkroomers
4. I don't believe I've ever seen all the shops owned at once, so while these shop numbers may be the maximum, they are not the average and this should be clarified
5. The regular shop price is inaccurate, only some are 70 silver
6. I'm not sure where you got either of your housing numbers
7. Where did you get that only 20 factions form monthly?

 

[JamondaIce]

I've been wondering for quite some time if anyone had taken the inflation into account. Glad someone did!

 

[Imboring56]

Valmyr,
1. I've averaged the numbers of new players and premiums to make it more accurate, as more trials mean more accurate results.
2. That is something I forgot to mention, as I only calculated it as if every player voted once. Since the voting numbers will surely change by the end of November, I'll just wait until then to fix it.
3. I accidentally messed up on that estimate, it should be 15 for the premiums and 7.5 for the non-premiums. These are hourly estimates in a dark room for sole mob money, done with the testing of my friend for 10 minutes. If you would like to do another test for 10 minutes and see if the result is the same, I would appreciate that.
4. This is all about the maximum amount of money that could be put in, not the average for the money sinks. The whole point of this is to find out the maximum amount of money from money sinks that could remove money from the economy. I am sorry if I didn't clarify that earlier.
5. No, I am sure about that, as I counted and triple checked my numbers there, not to mention asked a staff member.
6. Read the above.
7. It was an estimate done by a player who had been monitoring the number of faction disbands. 20, maybe give or take 5 created every month.

Thank you for the constructive argument! Glad to see somebody who isn't putting personal opinion into this.