Requested by @ulumulu1510
I have maintained in all of my ideas that MassiveCraft staff should continue to approach the economy "hands off." This does not mean they can't make minor adjustments to systems already in place to help stabilize the economy. I personally believe oversight and regulation is needed to a degree, but free market capitalism should always reign superior. This does not mean though that rules and limitations should not be imposed that prevent corrupt and criminal behavior to occur, such as abuse of systems or consumers.
Today, I invite you to join with me as I analyze the supply side of the MassiveCraft economy. We'll touch on a few topics that I hope you find interesting, and after reading, I encourage you to add how you interpret the economy on MassiveCraft. Topics we'll touch on include:
· Supply & Demand of items on MassiveCraft.
· Why prices have steadily declined over the past 1-2 years?
· What I deem the most important issues in terms of supply facing the MassiveCraft economy.
· What can the staff do without meddling too much in the economy itself to fix these issues.
Let us begin…
Supply & Demand of items on MassiveCraft
Supply of an item is dependent on consumer preference, consumer expectation, complimentary and substitute goods, production technology, price of inputs, number of supplies, and government intervention. Let's break all these down to set a baseline of definitions for the rest of the thread.
1. Consumer preference: Consumers (the player base) are only going to buy what they want to. If building materials or armor is unneeded at the current point in time, those items will not be bought, or not at least at a high rate.
2. Consumer expectation: Expectation greatly determine supply. If a war is brewing that will involve multiple factions spanning multiple months, production of armor and weapons will increase to meet the supposed demand that will eventually exist.
3. Complimentary and substitute goods: Axes and swords compliment armor and potions. People usually produce or buy swords and axes when they produce or buy armor. These are complimentary goods. On the flip side, axes and sword are substitute goods to each other. Most people choose to use one or the other.
4. Production technology: If producing an item becomes easier, logic dictates more of the item will be produced. "See – fishing on MassiveCraft." Fishing allowed people to produce armor, weapons, and raw materials at half the time and half the effort mining for the items and crafting them took. Therefore, the supply increased drastically.
5. Price of inputs: If it becomes expensive to create something, less of that item will be made. Imagine if individual diamond prices rose from roughly 1 regal per diamond to 5 regals per diamond. Producing armor would become more expensive, thus decreasing the supply.
6. Number of suppliers: As more people produce and item, supply increases, and prices fall unless demand increases at the same rate. "See – lack of specialization on MassiveCraft."
7. Government intervention: If a government (staff) subsidized the production of armor (pay people money to create a specific item, ie armor), the supply would drastically increase. If a government taxed the production and selling of armor, supply would decrease.
Alright, so we set a baseline, now we can continue with the discussion…
On MassiveCraft, specialization does not exist. I, just like the next guy, can sit down and produce an item one day, a different item the next, and so on so forth for the rest of my time. It would be like if everyone in life was a car mechanic. No one would need a mechanic, because everyone is a mechanic. Some concept on MassiveCraft. If someone needs armor on MassiveCraft, they don't need to buy it from an armor seller, because with enough dedication and time spent, they themselves can make the armor they need. The direct nonexistence of specialization on MassiveCraft leads to an indirect and unintended unwarranted increase of supply.
Supply on MassiveCraft is also exorbitant due to fact that materials will never run out. MassiveRestore makes sure of this. Which is not a bad thing mind you, if it is counteracted with the correct measures; measures that currently do not exist on the server. An endless supply of materials was created, but a removal to those materials at a sufficient rate was never added. On MassiveCraft, the production of raw materials into usable items is much quicker than the destruction of those items occur, therefore increasing the supply at an alarmingly rate.
All right, so we know that the supply of materials increases at an alarmingly rate, but what about demand to balance it all out? Logic would dictate that when supply is high, demand is low, and vice versa. This has held true for the most part. The issue is that we've hit a level where supply is so high, and demand is so low, that nothing has occurred to restore the balance to a healthy medium. Citing drastic measures, MassiveCraft would probably need to become locked into every day warfare with multiple battles lasting for over a year to restore a healthy balance of supply and demand. I'm not talking petty skirmishes. I'm talking twenty factions duking it out against each other every single day, breaking multiple sets of armor, for an entire year, to burn off the supply of armor and weapons.
Why have prices steadily declined over the past 1-2 years?
Simply put, supply increased so high and demand dropped so low that a lack of demand caused people to cut prices just to sell their items. It all started with greed right after the fishing epidemic. Everyone was producing 10-12 sets of armor per day, some more, and they wanted to sell them. Prices started at around 2000 regals. People wanted to sell so they would undercut to 1900 regals. And then someone would undercut to 1800 regals. Then 1700. The cycle continued until the price hit a floor of roughly 400 regals per set. Building materials also got easier to acquire. MCMMO level advances yielded more and more drops. People set up facilities specifically to farm items, which ties back to production technology. The items got easier to produce, so more of them were produced, driving up supply and down demand. Things got easier to make, so people took advantage of that, and cashed in, thinking they would be able to make a quick buck. And the first people to do so did. After a period of time though, demand changed accordingly to the increase in supply, but supply did not change accordingly to the decrease in demand. This is where things went wrong. Logic did not hold true, because as much as the staff want MassiveCraft's economy to mirror the real world's, it can only mirror it so much.
What I deem the most important issues in terms of supply facing the MassiveCraft economy
· Lack of specialization: People do not specialize. Therefore, any can produce anything, and supply is artificially driven up.
· Harmful donation options: I am calling for the immediate removal of the donation options that inject armor and weapons into the economy that would otherwise have to be bought or produced. This does not include Cake4All or items that are strictly lore items.
· A look as MassiveRestore's ore replenishment algorithm, and how it can be made better, or more realistic.
· An inflated supply of items in the economy.
What can the staff do without meddling too much in the economy itself to fix these issues
The staff have the tools at their disposable to fix the issues present. What they need is guidance and input from the player base to tell them what they need to change.
The following are my ideas to begin stabilizing the economy on MassiveCraft.
First, begin a slow but steady decrease of all item supplies in the economy through a variety of means.
· Decrease armor and weapons but keeping /fix associated with a regal cost per percent. This is a good thing; as /fix should never be used as the first way to repair armor. Instead, encourage darkrooming by possibly increasing the amount of vanilla XP that is obtained from mob death.
· Decrease building supplies but removing the additional drops or decreasing additional drops that MCMMO adds, and by tweaking the MassiveRestore algorithm.
· Increase demand of armor by decreasing supply of armor. Do this by not compensating for reduced armor durability, but by instead looking at MCMMO armor damage values as they pertain to axes and swords.
MassiveRestore is a great plugin. Our worlds last forever now. But our resources last forever now. From what I understand, 100% of the ores a world was created with are restored, but I need @ulumulu1510 to confirm or deny that. If the above is true, here is my idea to decrease the supply without physical intervention by the staff.
Make MassiveRestore work with a tiered reduction system of ores each time a world is restored. Let's work off of the basis that world X is restored fully over a month. At the end of each month, if a total of 500,000 ores existed on the map X, 500,000 ores have been replaced, albeit it in slightly different locations. With my idea, the amount of ores will decrease by a predetermined amount every month for a predetermined amount of months. For example, let's say each month the amount of ores replaced decreased by 10%, over the course of four months, and then resets.
Month one – 100% of ores are restored. 500,000 ores restored total. This is the peak.
Month two – 90% of ores are restored. 450,000 ores restored total. This is in decline.
Month three – 80% of ores are restored. 400,000 ores restored total. This is still in decline.
Month four – 70% of ores are restored. 350,000 ores restored total. This is the lowest point.
Now the cycle resets, shooting back up from 70% of ores restored to 100%. Over the course of four months, 150,000 ores were removed from circulation, or 30%. Technically speaking, there are only three times out of an entire restoration year (what I define as the time it takes to move through three cycles of 100% to 70% restoration), which is each month the restoration rate is at 100%. There are three months every restoration cycle of each percentage of restoration. This adds strategy to buying, selling, and waging wars.
· People will buy in large during the 100% restoration month, and even in the 90% restoration month, and sell large in the 80% and 70% restoration month.
· People will buy more in the low restoration months, and sell more in the higher restoration months.
· People should avoid declaring wars in the low restoration months when it Is harder to obtain raw items, and wage war in the high restoration months. This will help to add seasons of war to MassiveCraft when it is optimal and when it is not to declare war.
The idea will not increase the amount of items in circulation, and since it is a tiered reduction system, it can only server to take items out of circulation, and decrease supply. Restoration rates will never go above the 100% they are already at.
These are my theories and explanations of how I see the MassiveCraft economy. I hope they have interested you, and given you something to think about.
4/10/2016 Economy mini Analysis
Alright. So the economy in the past weeks. Where to begin…
I'll touch the following topics.
· Gift4All – AKA the new donation options.
· How Gift4All effected the economy and its impacts.
· What I propose be done in regards to the economy's current status.
Gift4All
Gift4All is one of MassiveCraft's solutions to still earn income while being EULA compliant. You can read and explore the Gift4All donation options here. A quick summary is that you make a onetime payment and buy an item that is customized with your name and custom lore, and said item is then distributed to every player currently online at the time of purchase. The idea is good in concept, and it doesn't hurt the economy overall when it's things like Soup4All and Shovel4All. But when it's Sword4All or Helmet4All, god tier armor and weapons quickly enter the economy at roughly 200 items per donation, the prices of these items, which some people bet their livelihood on selling, are artificially driven down.
How Gift4All effected the economy and its impacts.
The recent severe decline in god tier weapons and armor can be directly tied back to the introduction of Gift4All. Some quick and rough numbers based on first hand reports:
· Price of a set of God Armor before Gift4All: 400 regals (maximum.)
o Price of a set of God Armor after Gift4All: 80 regals. (maximum.)
o Net percentage loss in value: -80%
· Price of a God Weapon before Gift4All: 200 regals. (maximum.)
o Price of a God Weapon after Gift4All: 20 regals (maximum.)
o Net percentage loss in value: -90%
As you can, with these liberal numbers, the value of God Armor and God weapons has decreased by 80% and 90% respectively. Now, this would be understandable if it was because of an increased supply caused by increases production of said items via players. We'd have no one to blame but ourselves. Instead, the price has been artificially driven down by an influx of these items via Gift4All, which is at its core, a game breaking feature. It removes the need to actually play the game to acquire items to use for PVP. It has destroyed the market for these items. There is no incentive to buy these items, if you can just sit around AFK for hours and hope for someone to donate. I could leave my account as well as my three alternate accounts AFK all day and acquire Gift4All donation items, which I would say constitutes AFK grinding, and is therefore illegal, although the lines may be blurred a bit here.
What I propose be done in regards to the economy's current status
I still maintain that we must address the supply side of these items in terms of player production. If we can't remove Gift4All without risking the financial stability of the server, then we should look into making changes in regards to player production of these items, and how we can better balance it
I'd also like to have a sit down talk between @Madus and @ulumulu1510 if they have the time, and discuss these ideas and length, to better figure out what they can and can't achieve coding wise, and to hopefully carry my ideas further along the chain.
I have maintained in all of my ideas that MassiveCraft staff should continue to approach the economy "hands off." This does not mean they can't make minor adjustments to systems already in place to help stabilize the economy. I personally believe oversight and regulation is needed to a degree, but free market capitalism should always reign superior. This does not mean though that rules and limitations should not be imposed that prevent corrupt and criminal behavior to occur, such as abuse of systems or consumers.
Today, I invite you to join with me as I analyze the supply side of the MassiveCraft economy. We'll touch on a few topics that I hope you find interesting, and after reading, I encourage you to add how you interpret the economy on MassiveCraft. Topics we'll touch on include:
· Supply & Demand of items on MassiveCraft.
· Why prices have steadily declined over the past 1-2 years?
· What I deem the most important issues in terms of supply facing the MassiveCraft economy.
· What can the staff do without meddling too much in the economy itself to fix these issues.
Let us begin…
Supply & Demand of items on MassiveCraft
Supply of an item is dependent on consumer preference, consumer expectation, complimentary and substitute goods, production technology, price of inputs, number of supplies, and government intervention. Let's break all these down to set a baseline of definitions for the rest of the thread.
1. Consumer preference: Consumers (the player base) are only going to buy what they want to. If building materials or armor is unneeded at the current point in time, those items will not be bought, or not at least at a high rate.
2. Consumer expectation: Expectation greatly determine supply. If a war is brewing that will involve multiple factions spanning multiple months, production of armor and weapons will increase to meet the supposed demand that will eventually exist.
3. Complimentary and substitute goods: Axes and swords compliment armor and potions. People usually produce or buy swords and axes when they produce or buy armor. These are complimentary goods. On the flip side, axes and sword are substitute goods to each other. Most people choose to use one or the other.
4. Production technology: If producing an item becomes easier, logic dictates more of the item will be produced. "See – fishing on MassiveCraft." Fishing allowed people to produce armor, weapons, and raw materials at half the time and half the effort mining for the items and crafting them took. Therefore, the supply increased drastically.
5. Price of inputs: If it becomes expensive to create something, less of that item will be made. Imagine if individual diamond prices rose from roughly 1 regal per diamond to 5 regals per diamond. Producing armor would become more expensive, thus decreasing the supply.
6. Number of suppliers: As more people produce and item, supply increases, and prices fall unless demand increases at the same rate. "See – lack of specialization on MassiveCraft."
7. Government intervention: If a government (staff) subsidized the production of armor (pay people money to create a specific item, ie armor), the supply would drastically increase. If a government taxed the production and selling of armor, supply would decrease.
Alright, so we set a baseline, now we can continue with the discussion…
On MassiveCraft, specialization does not exist. I, just like the next guy, can sit down and produce an item one day, a different item the next, and so on so forth for the rest of my time. It would be like if everyone in life was a car mechanic. No one would need a mechanic, because everyone is a mechanic. Some concept on MassiveCraft. If someone needs armor on MassiveCraft, they don't need to buy it from an armor seller, because with enough dedication and time spent, they themselves can make the armor they need. The direct nonexistence of specialization on MassiveCraft leads to an indirect and unintended unwarranted increase of supply.
Supply on MassiveCraft is also exorbitant due to fact that materials will never run out. MassiveRestore makes sure of this. Which is not a bad thing mind you, if it is counteracted with the correct measures; measures that currently do not exist on the server. An endless supply of materials was created, but a removal to those materials at a sufficient rate was never added. On MassiveCraft, the production of raw materials into usable items is much quicker than the destruction of those items occur, therefore increasing the supply at an alarmingly rate.
All right, so we know that the supply of materials increases at an alarmingly rate, but what about demand to balance it all out? Logic would dictate that when supply is high, demand is low, and vice versa. This has held true for the most part. The issue is that we've hit a level where supply is so high, and demand is so low, that nothing has occurred to restore the balance to a healthy medium. Citing drastic measures, MassiveCraft would probably need to become locked into every day warfare with multiple battles lasting for over a year to restore a healthy balance of supply and demand. I'm not talking petty skirmishes. I'm talking twenty factions duking it out against each other every single day, breaking multiple sets of armor, for an entire year, to burn off the supply of armor and weapons.
Why have prices steadily declined over the past 1-2 years?
Simply put, supply increased so high and demand dropped so low that a lack of demand caused people to cut prices just to sell their items. It all started with greed right after the fishing epidemic. Everyone was producing 10-12 sets of armor per day, some more, and they wanted to sell them. Prices started at around 2000 regals. People wanted to sell so they would undercut to 1900 regals. And then someone would undercut to 1800 regals. Then 1700. The cycle continued until the price hit a floor of roughly 400 regals per set. Building materials also got easier to acquire. MCMMO level advances yielded more and more drops. People set up facilities specifically to farm items, which ties back to production technology. The items got easier to produce, so more of them were produced, driving up supply and down demand. Things got easier to make, so people took advantage of that, and cashed in, thinking they would be able to make a quick buck. And the first people to do so did. After a period of time though, demand changed accordingly to the increase in supply, but supply did not change accordingly to the decrease in demand. This is where things went wrong. Logic did not hold true, because as much as the staff want MassiveCraft's economy to mirror the real world's, it can only mirror it so much.
What I deem the most important issues in terms of supply facing the MassiveCraft economy
· Lack of specialization: People do not specialize. Therefore, any can produce anything, and supply is artificially driven up.
· Harmful donation options: I am calling for the immediate removal of the donation options that inject armor and weapons into the economy that would otherwise have to be bought or produced. This does not include Cake4All or items that are strictly lore items.
· A look as MassiveRestore's ore replenishment algorithm, and how it can be made better, or more realistic.
· An inflated supply of items in the economy.
What can the staff do without meddling too much in the economy itself to fix these issues
The staff have the tools at their disposable to fix the issues present. What they need is guidance and input from the player base to tell them what they need to change.
The following are my ideas to begin stabilizing the economy on MassiveCraft.
First, begin a slow but steady decrease of all item supplies in the economy through a variety of means.
· Decrease armor and weapons but keeping /fix associated with a regal cost per percent. This is a good thing; as /fix should never be used as the first way to repair armor. Instead, encourage darkrooming by possibly increasing the amount of vanilla XP that is obtained from mob death.
· Decrease building supplies but removing the additional drops or decreasing additional drops that MCMMO adds, and by tweaking the MassiveRestore algorithm.
· Increase demand of armor by decreasing supply of armor. Do this by not compensating for reduced armor durability, but by instead looking at MCMMO armor damage values as they pertain to axes and swords.
MassiveRestore is a great plugin. Our worlds last forever now. But our resources last forever now. From what I understand, 100% of the ores a world was created with are restored, but I need @ulumulu1510 to confirm or deny that. If the above is true, here is my idea to decrease the supply without physical intervention by the staff.
Make MassiveRestore work with a tiered reduction system of ores each time a world is restored. Let's work off of the basis that world X is restored fully over a month. At the end of each month, if a total of 500,000 ores existed on the map X, 500,000 ores have been replaced, albeit it in slightly different locations. With my idea, the amount of ores will decrease by a predetermined amount every month for a predetermined amount of months. For example, let's say each month the amount of ores replaced decreased by 10%, over the course of four months, and then resets.
Month one – 100% of ores are restored. 500,000 ores restored total. This is the peak.
Month two – 90% of ores are restored. 450,000 ores restored total. This is in decline.
Month three – 80% of ores are restored. 400,000 ores restored total. This is still in decline.
Month four – 70% of ores are restored. 350,000 ores restored total. This is the lowest point.
Now the cycle resets, shooting back up from 70% of ores restored to 100%. Over the course of four months, 150,000 ores were removed from circulation, or 30%. Technically speaking, there are only three times out of an entire restoration year (what I define as the time it takes to move through three cycles of 100% to 70% restoration), which is each month the restoration rate is at 100%. There are three months every restoration cycle of each percentage of restoration. This adds strategy to buying, selling, and waging wars.
· People will buy in large during the 100% restoration month, and even in the 90% restoration month, and sell large in the 80% and 70% restoration month.
· People will buy more in the low restoration months, and sell more in the higher restoration months.
· People should avoid declaring wars in the low restoration months when it Is harder to obtain raw items, and wage war in the high restoration months. This will help to add seasons of war to MassiveCraft when it is optimal and when it is not to declare war.
The idea will not increase the amount of items in circulation, and since it is a tiered reduction system, it can only server to take items out of circulation, and decrease supply. Restoration rates will never go above the 100% they are already at.
These are my theories and explanations of how I see the MassiveCraft economy. I hope they have interested you, and given you something to think about.
4/10/2016 Economy mini Analysis
Alright. So the economy in the past weeks. Where to begin…
I'll touch the following topics.
· Gift4All – AKA the new donation options.
· How Gift4All effected the economy and its impacts.
· What I propose be done in regards to the economy's current status.
Gift4All
Gift4All is one of MassiveCraft's solutions to still earn income while being EULA compliant. You can read and explore the Gift4All donation options here. A quick summary is that you make a onetime payment and buy an item that is customized with your name and custom lore, and said item is then distributed to every player currently online at the time of purchase. The idea is good in concept, and it doesn't hurt the economy overall when it's things like Soup4All and Shovel4All. But when it's Sword4All or Helmet4All, god tier armor and weapons quickly enter the economy at roughly 200 items per donation, the prices of these items, which some people bet their livelihood on selling, are artificially driven down.
How Gift4All effected the economy and its impacts.
The recent severe decline in god tier weapons and armor can be directly tied back to the introduction of Gift4All. Some quick and rough numbers based on first hand reports:
· Price of a set of God Armor before Gift4All: 400 regals (maximum.)
o Price of a set of God Armor after Gift4All: 80 regals. (maximum.)
o Net percentage loss in value: -80%
· Price of a God Weapon before Gift4All: 200 regals. (maximum.)
o Price of a God Weapon after Gift4All: 20 regals (maximum.)
o Net percentage loss in value: -90%
As you can, with these liberal numbers, the value of God Armor and God weapons has decreased by 80% and 90% respectively. Now, this would be understandable if it was because of an increased supply caused by increases production of said items via players. We'd have no one to blame but ourselves. Instead, the price has been artificially driven down by an influx of these items via Gift4All, which is at its core, a game breaking feature. It removes the need to actually play the game to acquire items to use for PVP. It has destroyed the market for these items. There is no incentive to buy these items, if you can just sit around AFK for hours and hope for someone to donate. I could leave my account as well as my three alternate accounts AFK all day and acquire Gift4All donation items, which I would say constitutes AFK grinding, and is therefore illegal, although the lines may be blurred a bit here.
What I propose be done in regards to the economy's current status
I still maintain that we must address the supply side of these items in terms of player production. If we can't remove Gift4All without risking the financial stability of the server, then we should look into making changes in regards to player production of these items, and how we can better balance it
I'd also like to have a sit down talk between @Madus and @ulumulu1510 if they have the time, and discuss these ideas and length, to better figure out what they can and can't achieve coding wise, and to hopefully carry my ideas further along the chain.
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